Light Vehicles Forecast 2050 for Europe: Driven by 48V
06/04/2016
Europe will be the leading region for ongoing internal combustion engine improvement. By 2050, 78% of light vehicle production will be based on highly efficient ICE traction combined with different stages of electrification.
Total production 2050
Considering recent demographic and socio-economic factors, European light vehicle production will further increase over the coming decade, reaching a volume of 26 M units in 2030. Age structure, agglomerative saturation and increasing wage levels will lead to stagnation of European sales and hence to a production relocation to growth markets by 2050. Therefore, a shift from conventional commodity architectures to low wage regions and a focus on innovative and sustainable designs are the conclusions to be drawn. With a production of 26 M units in 2050, Europe’s global light vehicle production share will have decreased from 23% today to 19%. European production will grow at a CAGR of 0.8% by 2050.Growth segments
Pure ICE 12V light vehicles with no advanced functions like Stop/Start currently account for 41% of total European production with 7.9 M units, but will completely vanish from European production by 2050. In return, ICE 12V with Stop/Start function will experience a short term peak by 2020, reaching 16 M units and covering 74% of the total 2020 production. At the beginning of the next decade, they will be replaced by higher voltage vehicles and especially by ICE 48V. They will start their above-average growth from 1.5 M units in 2020 to 13 M units in 2050, representing 50% of Europe’s overall 2050 production.With delayed reaction, Full Hybrids and also Electric Vehicles will start off in the market in 2025 and in 2040, respectively. Mild Hybrids will not have any great significance for European production because ICE 48V vehicles are the preferred solution of European OEMs.The market growth of Full Hybrids will not affect the growth of ICE 48V, but it will further accelerate the substitution of ICE 12V vehicles. Full Hybrids will reach a market volume of 7.3 M units in 2050, covering 28% of the European market.Considering these developments, ICE-based light vehicles currently cover over 99% of European production with 19.3 M units. Against all presumptions, this share will “only” decrease to a 78% market share in 2050, with a production volume of 20.3 M units.European OEMs will not be the first to engage in large scale electric vehicle production. Concluding that the growth will take off only after 2040, up to 5.2 M units can be achieved in 2050, which would represent a European EV market share of 20%. Due to infrastructure bottlenecks and industry concerns, Fuel Cells will play a minor role for European production by 2050.Outlook and conclusions
Europe will be the leading region for ongoing internal combustion engine improvement. By 2050, 78% of light vehicle production will be based on highly efficient ICE traction combined with different stages of electrification. Most other regions will shift their focus earlier to highly or purely electrified vehicles. Therefore, Europe will be the leading region for ICE improvement by 2050, having the highest ICE share among the Top 4 light vehicle regions (Europe, NAFTA,
Japan / Korea and China). Suppliers focusing on ICE-based vehicles and components will shift their focus more and more towards Europe and the respective OEMs. The break-even point of low voltage vehicles (60 V) will be in 2050.Europe may lose track regarding pure electrification because other regions and OEMs will shift their R&D focus towards EV before 2050. On the other hand, it can be predicted that other OEMs and regions will benchmark European ICE developments to improve their own products. Interested in further background, technical and strategic concepts, regional data and more specific splits?
Please do not hesitate to contact us.© Schlegel und Partner 2016Picture: © beugdesign | fotolia.com
Considering recent demographic and socio-economic factors, European light vehicle production will further increase over the coming decade, reaching a volume of 26 M units in 2030. Age structure, agglomerative saturation and increasing wage levels will lead to stagnation of European sales and hence to a production relocation to growth markets by 2050. Therefore, a shift from conventional commodity architectures to low wage regions and a focus on innovative and sustainable designs are the conclusions to be drawn. With a production of 26 M units in 2050, Europe’s global light vehicle production share will have decreased from 23% today to 19%. European production will grow at a CAGR of 0.8% by 2050.Growth segments
Pure ICE 12V light vehicles with no advanced functions like Stop/Start currently account for 41% of total European production with 7.9 M units, but will completely vanish from European production by 2050. In return, ICE 12V with Stop/Start function will experience a short term peak by 2020, reaching 16 M units and covering 74% of the total 2020 production. At the beginning of the next decade, they will be replaced by higher voltage vehicles and especially by ICE 48V. They will start their above-average growth from 1.5 M units in 2020 to 13 M units in 2050, representing 50% of Europe’s overall 2050 production.With delayed reaction, Full Hybrids and also Electric Vehicles will start off in the market in 2025 and in 2040, respectively. Mild Hybrids will not have any great significance for European production because ICE 48V vehicles are the preferred solution of European OEMs.The market growth of Full Hybrids will not affect the growth of ICE 48V, but it will further accelerate the substitution of ICE 12V vehicles. Full Hybrids will reach a market volume of 7.3 M units in 2050, covering 28% of the European market.Considering these developments, ICE-based light vehicles currently cover over 99% of European production with 19.3 M units. Against all presumptions, this share will “only” decrease to a 78% market share in 2050, with a production volume of 20.3 M units.European OEMs will not be the first to engage in large scale electric vehicle production. Concluding that the growth will take off only after 2040, up to 5.2 M units can be achieved in 2050, which would represent a European EV market share of 20%. Due to infrastructure bottlenecks and industry concerns, Fuel Cells will play a minor role for European production by 2050.Outlook and conclusions
Europe will be the leading region for ongoing internal combustion engine improvement. By 2050, 78% of light vehicle production will be based on highly efficient ICE traction combined with different stages of electrification. Most other regions will shift their focus earlier to highly or purely electrified vehicles. Therefore, Europe will be the leading region for ICE improvement by 2050, having the highest ICE share among the Top 4 light vehicle regions (Europe, NAFTA,
Japan / Korea and China). Suppliers focusing on ICE-based vehicles and components will shift their focus more and more towards Europe and the respective OEMs. The break-even point of low voltage vehicles (60 V) will be in 2050.Europe may lose track regarding pure electrification because other regions and OEMs will shift their R&D focus towards EV before 2050. On the other hand, it can be predicted that other OEMs and regions will benchmark European ICE developments to improve their own products. Interested in further background, technical and strategic concepts, regional data and more specific splits?
Please do not hesitate to contact us.© Schlegel und Partner 2016Picture: © beugdesign | fotolia.com